While the eyes in Africa are on the resumption of a series of coups, as the examples of Niger and Gabon have shown, developments in Sudan have opened the debate on whether to put an end to the conflict that has been going on since April. Abdel Fattah al-Bukhran, Chief of Staff of the Sudanese Army and head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, convened the government for the first time since the start of the conflict, made several visits within Sudan and diplomatic contacts outside Sudan. Al-Buhran met with members of the government for the first time since the clashes in April. He said he was able to leave the army headquarters in Khartoum thanks to air and naval operations.
The fact that he left his headquarters and made several contacts in Sudan, as well as diplomatic visits to Egypt, South Sudan, Qatar, Eritrea and Turkey, suggests that a peace process with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is underway. Al-Bukhran’s visits are important because they are the first since April and because he is under siege by the HTS. Consequently, it was understood that al-Buhran was out of the siege. The Transitional Sovereignty Council in the capital Khartoum is under siege by the NLD.
NATIONAL RECONCILIATION EFFORTS IN SUDAN IN THE SHADOW OF MILITARY AND POLITICAL RIVALRIES
Dr. Ceren Gurseler
While the eyes in Africa are on the resumption of a series of coups, as the examples of Niger and Gabon have shown, developments in Sudan have raised the question of whether or not to put an end to the conflict that has been going on since April. Abdel Fattah al-Bukhran, Chief of Staff of the Sudanese Army and head of the Interim Governing Council, convened the government for the first time since the start of the conflict, made several visits within Sudan and diplomatic contacts outside Sudan. Al-Bulman met with members of the government for the first time since the clashes in April. He said he was able to leave the army headquarters in Khartoum thanks to air and naval operations.
The fact that he left his headquarters and made various contacts in Sudan, as well as his diplomatic visits to Egypt, South Sudan, Qatar, Eritrea and Turkey, raises the question of whether a peace process with the Quick Support Forces (SSF) is underway. Al-Bukhran’s visits are significant because they are the first since April and because the NDF is under siege. Consequently, it was understood that al-Bukhran was out of the siege. The Transitional Sovereignty Council in the capital Khartoum is under siege by the NTC.
The rivalry between key military and political figures, the existence of armed groups outside the military, and the ability of these groups to engage in conflict in order to realize their claims to state governance show that the causes of instability are not new, but were also problematic under Omar al-Bashir. While asking why stability and peace have not been achieved since the ouster of al-Bashir, the fact that the political rivalry between various military figures has evolved into a civil war should also be evaluated. In other words, the building blocks of Sudanese politics are once again up for discussion.
Another issue that is likely to remain on the agenda in the short and medium term is the possibility of the study ending as a result of international babas such as mediation and facilitation. It is thought that the rivalry between al-Buhran and General Mohamed Khandan Dagalo, the leader of the paramilitary power HDK, may end with the achievement of national reconciliation through external intervention.
For instance, South Sudan is among the states that have come to the forefront with their past mediation activities and are important at this point. In other words, the role of its relations with its neighbors, especially South Sudan, in the fate of the intra-Sudanese balances and in achieving national reconciliation in the current period is back on the agenda.
On April 15th, clashes between the Sudanese army and the NGOs could not be avoided. At least 5,000 people have been killed and 5.1 million displaced. As mentioned above, the outbreak of hostilities is based on political and military rivalry. There are disagreements between the military and the NGO on the issue of military security reform. For example, the aim of integrating the HDK into the army was controversial. The integration of the approximately 100,000-strong NDF into the army and who would be in charge of this military force did not prevent the rivalry between al-Buhran and Dagalo. In fact, the outbreak of the conflict stemmed from the tension based on the deployment of the NDF throughout the country. The two men also disagreed on the transition to civilian rule and the future of Sudan. Another step that not only led to the continuation of the clashes but also to the continuation of tensions was al-Bukhran’s decision to dissolve the NLD and declare it a rebel force against the state.
There have also been developments that bring to mind the possibility of a double-headed government in Sudan similar to the one in Libya. Dagalo, the leader of the NLD, made statements in the capital Khartoum that they could form their own government. This statement was made by the army in Port Sudan. After the public discourse of establishing the presidential palace and the Foreign Ministry headquarters. Dagalo claims that al-Bukhran has no legitimacy. However, it should be remembered that Daga1o is a former ally of al-Bukhran. In fact, he is said to have been al- Bukhran’s ally due to his support during the coup that brought al-Burhan to power in October 2021.
Another factor keeping the conflict alive is the continued attacks on civilians and human rights violations in Darfur. This brought to mind the Darfur crisis of 2003, which saw clashes between Arabs and Africans. The Sudanese leader at the time, Omar al-Bashir, was reported to have armed the Janjaweed militia and ordered attacks on African populations. The International Criminal Court (ICC) continues to prosecute international crimes committed in Darfur during 2003. The NLD is accused of committing human rights violations in Darfur.
Historical Background of the Power Struggle between the NLD and the Sudanese Army
In order to understand the HDK’s high level of military and political rivalry with the military, it would be useful to look at how the paramilitary element has been strengthened in the process. In Sudan, the military seized power in April 2019, shortly after protests against then leader al-Bashir began in late 2018. Negotiations were held between the military and the main civilian organizations involved in the protests, resulting in the establishment of a joint transitional administration, the Transitional Sovereignty Council, composed of civilians and military. Al- Burlian became President and General Dagalo, the leader of the NGO, Vice President.
Established in 2013, the NLD is also protecting some gold mines in the country. The paramilitary force is active not only inside Sudan but also outside Sudan. For example, in the period between 2013 and 2017, it was involved in the conflicts in Yemen and Libya.
It is understood that the NGO has become independent and strengthened within the complex process in Sudan. In order to understand the NLD, it would be useful to look at the al- Bashir administration and the Darfur crisis in particular. The force originated from Darfur and traces its origins to the Janjawids. As mentioned above, the Janjawids, who are Arabs, were appointed by al-Bashir in the Darfur crisis that started in 2003. In Darfur, conflicts broke out between Arabs and non-Arabs of African origin, triggered by ethnic and political disputes and the climate crisis. The ICC’s prosecution of al-Bashir for international crimes in Darfur required the Janjaweed militias to take control. Consequently, activities were initiated to integrate these militias into the army. The militias were integrated into the Sudanese intelligence under the name of HDK and became a part of the organization. The militias sided with al-Bashir in the face of the protests against al-Bashir. However, the group later switched sides and supported the protesters against al-Bashir and became part of the opposition al-Bukhran and al-Bashir.
In other words, the NDF played an important role in al-Bashir’s overthrow by operating together with al-Buhran. The role it played, as mentioned above, not only brought the HDK Commander Daga1u to be al-Bukhran’s deputy, but also led the paramilitary force to take an active position in the country’s administration. Afterwards, it is observed that the HDK continued to grow stronger. For instance, it was made semi-independent and turned into a military structure subordinate to Daga1u. The HDC played an important role in suppressing the rebellion in Darfur. However, al-Buhran’s decision to dissolve the HDC on September 6 removed the legal basis for the legal and legitimate existence of the HDC in Sudan.
In the face of the above-mentioned developments, the NGO has expressed its readiness for the cessation of hostilities, which should bring about a transition to civilian rule. It proposes the organization of democratic elections and the unification of the Sudanese army and the NGO.
Another important development took place in the context of the international community’s capacity to resolve the problems in Sudan. Volker Perthes, the UN Special Envoy to Sudan, resigned on September 14. In a statement to the UN Security Council (UNSC), he warned that the conflict could escalate into civil war. It should be recalled that the Sudanese government had previously declared Perthes a persona non grata. In his latest address to the UNSC, Perthes sharply criticized Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the head of the paramilitary force, General Mohamed Hamdan Daga1o. He stated that human rights violations have been committed as a result of the conflict, in particular that the NGO is responsible for sexual violence and the killing of civilians. He also accused the Sudanese military forces of air bombardment without regard for civilians.
Al-Buhran’s Diplomatic Attempts to Seek National Reconciliation in Sudan
Why are al-Burhan’s diplomatic tours important in the current period within the framework of the above picture? It remains to be seen whether al-Bukhran’s contacts will lead to a peace agreement between the conflicting parties. Moreover, in August, for the first time, al- Bukhran traveled abroad. As mentioned above, he paid diplomatic visits to Egypt, South Sudan, Eritrea, Qatar and Turkey. During his contacts in Qatar, for example, the situation in Sudan was discussed.
In Egypt, he held talks with Abdulfettah al-Sisi. At this point, the importance of al-Sisi for al-Buhran should be emphasized. Since the coup, al-Bukhran’s most important international ally is the Egyptian leader.
His visit to South Sudan is also important because South Sudanese President Salva Ktir sees himself as the main mediator. Peace between Sudan and rebel groups in August 2020
Cuba has an important place in the negotiations leading to the agreement. On the other hand, the conflict in Sudan and
Instability in Sudan can quickly and easily have a negative impact on the neighboring country,
destabilizing
has the potential to hurt. In this context, it is seen that the two countries turn to each other to solve their problems.
Moreover, Sudan-South Sudan relations are very different from ordinary neighboring state relations. It should be remembered that there have been two civil wars in Sudan. Another reason is that South Sudan’s independence came with Khartoum’s approval. Cooperation was established within the framework of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, Khartoum agreed to include independence among the options to be voted in a referendum and South Sudan became independent as a result of the process.
Although the two countries are historically hostile, they have recently shown a willingness to cooperate, at least in rhetoric. For example, in the current period, when both countries are struggling with instability, each side is able to take part in the other’s national reconciliation process or share their desire to be active in such processes with the public and the other side. The Cuba-Hartoum duo is well acquainted with each other’s political processes. Both countries have influence over opposition elements.
Cuba’s support for national reconciliation and the transition to democracy in Sudan is important as it shows its interest in its neighbor’s domestic politics and its responsibility in the national reconciliation process. In this context, Cuba’s support for al-Bashir’s ouster in 2019 as a threat to the fragile peace process is important.
concern should be remembered. On the other hand, the closeness in rhetoric can also be reflected in bilateral relations. After 10 years, the opening of the borders should be taken as an indication of progress both in stabilizing the region and in normalizing relations between Juba and Khartoum.
Future Reconciliation Efforts and Challenges
Since October 2019, South Sudan’s H.H. Kiir, Sudan’s interim government and armed groups
coalition to mediate and negotiate between the two coalitions. For example, as a result of these negotiations, the cessation of hostilities in Darfur, Blue Nile and the Nuba Mountains
humanitarian corridors were agreed upon. Kiir’s statement that the Sudan Peace Accord
in the emergence of a new generation of children.
Ktir also agreed to give Khartoum a major role in the South Sudan peace process. As a result of that process, a peace agreement was signed. However, al-Bashir did not show the same attitude at the time and did not accept Kiir’s mediation offer. On the other hand, al-Bashir
it is necessary to say that the new administration accepted Kiir’s offer of mediation. In this context, a peace agreement was signed in October 2020 between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North Agor and Darfur groups.
There have been previous attempts at peace and reconciliation between the warring parties. For example, Saudi Arabia and the United States have made various attempts in this direction, but to no avail. Egypt, on the other hand, has offered to facilitate dialogue between the parties. Cairo’s initiatives resulted in the formation of a group of Sudan’s neighbors and six other countries seeking a solution to the conflict in Sudan. The failure of these initiatives to achieve what was intended should lead to a cautious approach to current and future mediation efforts.
As a result, tensions continue between the two military figures who are competing for political power in Sudan, which started with the threat of famine and starvation. They do not see each other as legitimate and therefore oppose giving a role to the other side in the future of the country. However, recent developments suggest that the two may have entered a process of reconciliation. Al-Bukhran broke the NGO “blockade” and made contacts inside and outside the country. Al- Bukhran, who wants to underline his legitimacy, has come to the agenda with these contacts that the process of reconciliation with the HNC may start and that there may be international initiatives in this direction.
