Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s government by the United States and its allies on April 9, 2003, it is possible to say that the relations between Turkey and Iraq have undergone significant changes with ups and downs along with the changes taking place in the Middle East. In fact, when Turkey’s foreign policy towards Iraq is evaluated, it is possible to state that from 1991 to 2007, Turkey’s foreign policy towards Iraq was solely security-oriented and focused on the PKK terrorist organization. Since 2008, however, Turkey’s Iraq policy has emphasized economic and commercial relations in addition to the fight against terrorism.
However, it should not be forgotten that if the diplomatic sphere is pushed to the background in the relations between the two countries, the economic, trade and security strategies will be at risk. In this context, a “High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council” agreement was signed in 2008 to increase cooperation in Ankara-Baghdad diplomatic relations. These are important steps that later turned into inclusive relations with 48 memorandums of understanding between Turkey and Iraq in the fields of energy, environment, health, water, border gates, renewal of the Kirkuk oil pipeline, railway and canal connection, agriculture and forestry.
Balanced policy is important
Along with the above-mentioned steps to strengthen relations between the two countries, serious crises have also occurred from time to time. Especially between 2010 and 2017, Turkey’s foreign policy towards Iraq was multilateral and balanced, and Turkey’s Iraq policy was biased towards the Kurdish administration in Erbil and the Sunni Arabs, which delayed many projects between the two countries. In fact, when we look at the main factors in Turkey’s Iraq policy in the period, it can be said that the strategies pursued to reduce Iran’s influence in Iraq in the context of regional power competition with the Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East.
There was a perception in Baghdad that Turkey was trying to make policy through Iraqi Sunni Arabs and Kurds and Baghdad accused Ankara’s policies of dividing the country. It is important to shed light on the fact that given the political and social structure of Iraq, it is not easy for any regional or global actor to create a political balance with a single party due to the political nature of Iraq. Therefore, political balance in Iraq can only be achieved by establishing balanced and multifaceted relations with all parties. Otherwise, even if a policy that focuses on one side is successful in the short term, it will not bring success in the medium and long term. Therefore, Turkey’s pursuit of a policy of balance will contribute to cooperation. In this context, it can be said that the project of the large Fao port has a strategic importance in terms of taking serious visible steps in Ankara-Baghdad relations.
The Greater Fao Port will be the lifeblood
With the invasion of Iraq by the US and international coalition forces, the massive destruction of the country and state institutions inevitably led to economic problems. The governments established in post-occupation Iraq have gradually realized that the only way to save the country’s economy from being dependent on oil is through strategic projects. In this context, the Greater Fao Port Project was first put on the agenda by the Iraqi government in 2005. It is stated that this project will reduce dependence on oil by 40 to 60 percent of Iraq’s national income. In this sense, it is possible to characterize the Fao port as the lifeblood of the Iraqi economy. For the Iraqi government, the dependence of the national income only on oil carries a great risk due to the imbalances in the energy markets and brings the country’s economy to the brink of crises.
The Greater Fao Project will cover 350 square kilometers of the land area of the city and 250 square kilometers of the sea. The cost of this project to the Iraqi government is 4.6 billion euros. Fao port will be ranked 10th in the world and will be the largest commercial port in the Gulf region. In addition, the port’s annual capacity of 99 million tons is also very important.
The first step of the Greater Fao Project, which the Iraqi government attaches great importance to, was taken in 2010 with an agreement with the South Korean company Daewoo. However, due to the political crises in the country, the occupation of 40 percent of the country’s territory by the Daesh terrorist organization, the sharp decline in oil prices and economic crises, the project was disrupted. By 2020, work had begun to revitalize the project and a new agreement worth 2 billion 625 million euros was signed with the Daewoo company. The first phase of the project is scheduled to be completed in 2025.
Turkey’s geopolitical position will strengthen
The Grand Fao port will connect the Gulf region to Europe through Iraq and Turkey. In this respect, it will open a new chapter in Turkey-Iraq relations not only commercially but also politically as a matter of mutual interest. When such multiplier effects are considered, the benefits of the Fao project for Iraq will far exceed economic estimates. It will reduce Iraq’s dependence on oil and shift from an unpredictable and fragile structure to a more stable system. At the same time, this project will make a significant contribution to world trade. Turkey’s geopolitical position on the Asia-Europe and East-West trade axis will be further strengthened.
From this perspective, the Greater Fao Project is planned to increase the trade volume between Turkey and Iraq from 15 billion to 30 billion dollars by 2030. Turkey will also benefit from the economic advantages of being a transit center. As such, the “Development Road Project” between Turkey and Iraq should not be seen as a simple train line. With this project, the commercial potential of the Gulf region, including Iraq, and even the entire Middle East will be transferred to the world through Turkey. It is essential for our region that this project is realized in the fastest way without disruption. When we look at the cost of the Development Road Project, it is determined as 17 billion dollars. 10 billion will be paid by Iraq and 7 billion by Turkey.
A new Silk Road?
The transportation of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas through the port of Fao to Turkey and onwards to Europe means lower costs. In this context, it is important to keep in mind that this project will not bypass ports in the Gulf region. The Fao Port Project is a new option for China. Because China is trying to operate the Silk Road Project through the Iranian route. However, tensions and insecurity between the Western world and Iran put this route at risk. The Baghdad government’s preference for Turkey, as a safer and more realistic choice, may bring China to this point.
