According to the calendar announced to the international public opinion, the negotiations of the renewal of the 2015 Iranian Nuclear Deal that is proceeding in Vienna was going to restart in the first week of October. Although the first day of the month has passed there is no certainty on the start day of the negotiations. However, it has been clear that the Biden Administration’s pledge on returning to the Nuclear Deal was not referring to an immediate one. As it may be recalled, Trump withdrew from the Nuclear Deal bilaterally in 2018. Biden, on the other hand, mentioned the return to Deal as an electoral promise. Since the Biden Administration took office, United States delegates have traveled to Vienna six times in order to attend the meetings as a result of three EU countries’ initiatives. However those meetings haven’t been conducted in a face-to-face format. Therefore, the Vienna model is being called as indirect meetings.
Vienna Negotiations
P4+ 1 (Russia, China, France, UK + Germany) which sit at table with the US and Iran separately in Vienna, had underlined some preconditions for mutual return to the 2015 Nuclear Deal. Tehran is demanding that the US first lift sanctions against Iran. One of the reason why there has not been a serious development on those negotiations is the dispute on who is going to take the first step in order to return the deal. As expected, both the US and Iran would seek to see/show that first step came from the other party and then down at the table. Another reason hindering the revival of the agreement is the US’s persistence on limiting (i) Iran’s missile capacity and (ii) Tehran’s agent and missile groups in the Middle East. As might be expected, the Tehran administration has strongly opposed both Western and Israeli demands on taking Iran missiles and its militia forces in the region within the scope of the Agreement.
Reasons of Worry
As a result of US President Trump’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal, also called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has faced the negative effects of the maximum pressure policy. While struggling with those adverse effects, Tehran realized that the pledges that were given by the Western Europe were not being done and after 2016 it started to break the rules of the 2015 Agreement one by one. Indeed, according to some American sources using data from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Tehran administration has already succeeded in enriching uranium to 60%. This situation is viewed as worrying by the Western World and international community primarily for the Gulf states and Israel because it signals that Iran’s time to acquire nuclear weapons has shortened. Therefore, everyone focused on the 7th round talks that p4+1 will hold with Iran’s new administration to take the necessary steps before the point of no turn.
The 6th round talks between the US and p4+1 representatives in Vienna had stopped two days after the Iranian elections, which was after the election of Ibrahim Raisi instead of Rouhani, on June 20. Since the Raisi administration’s road map had not been determined yet, this period was understood as a normal waiting period by the international community. In the first statement made after the elections in Iran, it was mentioned that following the establishment of the new government Tahran will restart the negotiations. This had revived the hopes. However, since the establishment of the Raisi administration, the absence of any steps taken has caused worries.
Uncertainty of the 7th Round
As we understood, the question of when the new round of the negotiations will take place in Vienna in order to return to the Nuclear Deal, has been answered in different ways according to reformist and conservative parties. The Conservatives view positively that Tehran has not given a clear date for the 7th round of the talks. For example, in a statement for Quds Online on 26 July, Abbas Muktedir mentioned that Westerners have missed lots of opportunities at the JCPOA meetings and now it is Iran’s turn to determine when and under what conditions do the negotiations take place. Again, Emir Ali Abdulfatih from the conservative side states in a speech given to Khorasan newspaper on 26 September that,” The lost time on JCPOA until now works against the US but for the benefit of Iran”. On the other hand, as opposed to the conservative side, the reformist wing indicated that a nuclear meeting date should be given as soon as possible and Tehran’s unwillingness would work against Iran. This party believes that, West may close the door of opportunity that it pushed for İran on JCPOA in Vienna anytime if it is not satisfied with the negotiations. In this regard, US representatives who attended the last UN General Assembly meeting in New York also embraced a discourse supportive of the reformists and Invited Tahran to consider the opportunity in Vienna. According to the US administrations, it should be known that this door of opportunity is not going to stay open forever. Similarly, officials of the Russian Federation also shared their opinion with the international community by stating that it is wrong to wait more for JCPOA negotiations and the lost time might work against Tehran.
Tehran’s “Back to the East” Policy
According to Iranian specialist Kaihan Barzigar, another reason why conservative President Raisi insists on not giving a certain date to P4+1 for the meeting in Vienna is Tehran’s propensity to return to the East in its foreign policy. This inclination is linked to the lider’s ideologic-religious preference on one hand and Tehran’s current economic conditions on the other hand. Especially in 2018, the amplified sanctions imposed on Tehran after the US President Trump left the nuclear Deal have considerably damaged Iran’s economy. Iran indicates on every occasion, that it has found the solution, in developing trade relations with its Eastern neighbors in order to compensate for this damage. Thereupon, the policy to prioritize Iran-West relationship which strengthened with Rouhani and anchored with JCOAP has signaled change within the Raisi administration. In fact, what makes this turn possible is that on one hand Rouhani’s endeavor to keep the relations with the West on the track and on the other hand, trying to establish interdependence and integration mechanisms with its near and distant neighbors in the East. This balance was result of an obligation rather than a conscious choice back in that time as well. Ruhani has started the orientation to the East due to the sanctions, placing maximum importance to protect its ties with the Asian countries in case of a change in the Western policies. Hence, in March 2020-2021 Iran has worked to become closer with the Eastern neighbors within the framework of Rouhani’s back to the East policy primarily with China, Iraq, UAE, Turkey and Afghanistan. Iran’s exports reached 34 billion dollars during this period. However, Rouhani also hoped that Trump’s policies are temporary and the relations with the West could be fixed. Today, President Reisi who came after Rouhani seeks no goal to be known as the administration which put the Iran-West relation on track. Therefore, Iran’s consolidation of its relations with the Asian countries, primarily with China is not just used as a damage management mechanism. This would save Tehran from the negative effects of the US sanctions for Raisi indeed. However, most important from that, when Tehran consolidates its relations with Asia it can move more flexibly both in Vienna and in other negotiations. In short, the fundamental difference of the orientation to the East in the ıran’s foreign policy and the new President’s orientation was not due to economic obligations but merely for political reasons. Some experts who evaluate Iran’s political moves in the recent past in this context claim that Iran is trying to create a small Belt and Road project. In fact, becoming a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on 17 September 2021 is a result of Iran’s back to the East policy. However it shouldn’t be forgotten that the only mechanism available to prevent those new economic and political attempts of Tehran is in the hands of US. The economic sanctions that are imposed which block banking transfers are preventing Iran from its turn to the East as strong as it would like. For the people evaluating Iran’s resistance before the 7th round, which we are on the same page, the fundamental reason is neither back to the East nor difference of Rouhani-Raisi, but Tehran’s aim of putting maximum pressure on the US in the Vienna meetings in order to increase the amount of enriched uranium it has. This pushes the international society to rethink about the results of Trump’s failures.
Trump’s Failure
After the Trump administratiın labeled the JCOAP as a bad deal and withdrew from it in 2018, it pursued a policy of maximum pressure on Iran. As a result of this pressure policy on Tehran, President Trump believed that he would succeed in bringing Tehran to the negotiating table and convincing it to make concessions regarding its missile capabilities and Iran-backed militias. Otherwise, Washington would play card of military option. Interestingly, the Netanyahu administration in Israel also believed that Trump’s strategy would be successful and supported the maximum pressure policy. According to the Netanyahu government, Tehran would be unable to withstand the pressure and sanctions imposed by the US in the end and would return to the table by offering concessions on various issues including its nuclear program. However, the situation of today, we face a Tehran that, in the 7th round of negotiations, increasing its stock of enriched uranium to sit at the table from a stronger position. The maximum pressure policy that the US implemented against Tehran during the Trump period has completely backfired. Moreover, Iran has managed to resist all of the US’s political and economic pressure and has become a “nuclear threshold state.” On top of that, as a result of Washington’s pressure policy, Iranian conservatives, have taken control of the government in the country and consolidated their power contrary to Western preferences. Today, the international community is witnessing a great power struggle, also referred to as a New Cold War, between the US, Russia, and China. In this struggle, while Iran was expected to anchor its relations with the West through the Nuclear Agreement, it has instead been pushed to act together Russia and China with its policy of turning to the East. The Europeans hoping that the Biden administration could reverse the situation, have been disappointed so far.
Why Is the Deal Important?
As a result of the Trump administration’s erroneous policies, Iran has now advanced its nuclear weapons development capabilities far beyond what they were before the 2015 Nuclear Agreement. Back in 2015, a mainstream question in Western articles was, “Should we live with a nuclear-armed Iran, or bomb Iran?” This dead end paved the way for the Nuclear Agreement. Today, the international community faces a similar dilemma, dealing with a Tehran that has not only increased its nuclear capabilities and demonstrated its resilience but also remains economically under pressure. Let’s hope the Vienna talks yield a positive outcome, bringing Iran in line with the terms of the NPT. Otherwise, the consequences will go beyond undermining the spirit of nuclear disarmament and the Middle East could find itself in a rapid arms race, both nuclear and conventional due to different fears.
