The Russia-Ukraine war, which the international community faced on February 24, 2022, has led to energy crises around the world, especially in Europe. Moscow has started to play the energy card in the face of the aggravated economic sanctions imposed by European countries, especially the United States of America (USA), against Russia. This situation shows that the strategies pursued by European countries in their energy policies have no alternative. Although European countries have been looking for alternatives to Russian natural gas, on which they are 41 percent dependent, after the Ukraine war, they have not yet been able to overcome the aforementioned crisis. Although European countries have been seeking alternatives to clean energy for a long time, they have not been able to completely break their dependence on Russia. After the Russia-Ukraine war, it is obvious that Europe is facing many challenges in the energy context and is adversely affected by the potential increase in average gas prices, especially in the winter months, and the geopolitical factors through which energy lines pass. Despite all these developments, it should not be forgotten that the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East region, added to the Ukraine war, is also worrying in terms of deepening Europe’s energy crisis.
Energy Crisis Stalemate in Europe
Although the search for a solution to the energy crisis in Europe has achieved a relative result in the short term, the uncertainty of weather conditions due to climate change, geopolitical factors and their reflections on the markets continues. In this context, it is possible to say that there is no reliable option that will completely solve Europe’s energy problems in the short and medium term. In other words, the fact that a low-cost and reliable route that will free Europe from Russian natural gas has not yet been finalized is a major crisis. Therefore, the most important factor that causes energy prices to rise in Europe in the long run is the possibility of Moscow using its energy card by being stuck with Russian natural gas.
In this case, it should be noted that the reflections of the war in Ukraine on the energy markets and the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East region should be read differently from each other. This is because if there is a risk that the Israel-Hamas conflict will spread to the entire Middle East, it will increase prices in oil markets rather than natural gas. Moreover, it does not mean that wars affecting oil markets will not have negative repercussions on the natural gas sector. Of course, the natural gas sector will also be affected, but not to the extent of the Ukraine war.
According to a report published by the Energy Institute, Europe’s liquefied natural gas imports in 2022 will amount to 170.2 billion cubic meters, while natural gas imports transported by pipelines will amount to 150.8 billion cubic meters. Moreover, Norway ranks first, with 30 to 40% of the volume of natural gas exported to Europe in 2022. All of Norway’s natural gas exports to Europe are realized through pipelines.
In this context, while the total volume of natural gas exports to the European Union countries through pipelines was 10 billion cubic meters in 2021, this ratio reached approximately 117 billion cubic meters in 2022. In the ranking of natural gas imported by the European Union countries in 2022, Russia and Azerbaijan are ranked after Norway. From this point of view, it should be emphasized that although European countries seem to have managed to get rid of Russian oil, they will continue their dependence on natural gas.
How will Europe survive the Energy Crisis?
It is possible to say that the natural gas problem in European countries is not only caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, but also by climate change and the changes in the geopolitical context in the international arena over the last two decades. Therefore, the fact that European countries do not resort to various means in their energy policies despite their dependence on foreign energy carries serious risks. Because the costs of the natural gas sector and other energy resources of European countries are very high, it is seen that there is no alternative to Russia in the short and medium term.
In this respect, European energy companies such as Shell and French TotalEnergies have signed agreements with Qatar. Last October 2023, Qatar Energy announced that it had signed a 27-year natural gas purchase agreement with Qatar to supply Shell with 3.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually. Qatar Energy also announced that it had signed a 27-year natural gas agreement with TotalEnergies. Therefore, it can be stated that the European countries’ signing of 27-year energy agreements with Qatar aims to break the pressure of Russian natural gas, albeit relatively, in the short term. It is worth noting that the biggest buyers of Qatar’s natural gas, which has signed agreements with European energy companies, are China, Japan and South Korea.
Considering the existing investments made in the energy sector of the European Union countries through European and international companies, it should be kept in mind that their realization will take 3 to 5 years at best. Therefore, it is possible to state that European countries, which are looking for alternative energy sources and routes to Russia after the Ukrainian war that started in February 2022, will have a natural gas problem until 2026-2027.
From this perspective, there are many alternatives that Europe is turning to, including natural gas imported from the Middle East. However, it seems quite difficult to compare these alternatives with the natural gas supplied from Russia in terms of cheaper cost, faster transportation and safer pipelines. In such a situation, it can be said that Europe will be dependent on Russia in the medium term unless the search for a significantly safer, faster and less costly alternative natural gas is (not) realized. A Europe independent of Russia in terms of energy is estimated to be possible by 2030.
It is worth underlining that Europe has not been able to keep warm without Russian natural gas. This is because the Russian gas pipeline represents 15% of the demand of the European Union countries to date. This means that Europe’s energy market cannot give up on Russian natural gas as a supplier.
Can Turkey be Europe’s Energy Pipeline Alternative?
It is possible to say that Turkey’s increasing geopolitical position as an energy route could inevitably become an important commercial alternative route for European countries. Because there are important projects to become an energy center with the increase in Turkey’s diplomatic, commercial and economic relations with Asia, Europe and Africa. Especially the Development Road Project that Turkey is trying to develop with Iraq is likely to be an alternative energy line for Europe. This is because the Greater Fao Port project initiated by the Baghdad Central government will connect the Gulf-Iraq trade to Europe via Turkey. In this context, it is planned to geographically connect the Gulf region to Europe through Iraq and Turkey.
In conclusion, considering the plans proposed by the European Union regarding Russian natural gas, it can be stated that if European countries continue their policies to completely get rid of Russian natural gas in the coming periods, they will eventually move away from Moscow in the energy context. To summarize, according to forecasts for 2024, although it seems possible for Europe to diversify its energy alternatives despite Russian natural gas, Moscow still holds a strong energy card. On the other hand, in order to increase the resilience and independence of the European energy market system, the capacity to stockpile natural gas should continue to expand. It should be noted that winter in Europe usually lasts from November to March. Therefore, in 2023, the European Union, with an estimated population of 450 million people, may face serious energy problems in the coming months as Europe does not feel the winter unusually severely due to climatic conditions.
