One of the goals of the Washington administration’s efforts to establish a Middle East NATO is to prevent Russia from returning to the Middle East like the Soviet Union after the Syrian civil war and to start a new Cold War from the Arab world.
The September 11 attacks caused significant ruptures both in the Middle East and in the international arena and led regional and global actors to reconsider their foreign policy, security and economic strategies. Since World War I and World War II, most of the developments, problems and crises in the Middle East have been characterized by the intervention of the United States of America (USA), the United Kingdom and Western countries and the search for solutions. However, it is a fact that the global powers have not been able to bring any solution to the problematic spiral of the Middle East region until today; instead, they have caused the problems to deepen. The intervention in question has also brought regional or internal conflicts from time to time. Because of the rivalry between the US, Britain and the global powers in the Middle East, the end of conflicts and wars in the Middle East seems to be quite difficult. For this reason, the Middle East was the main arena of power struggle between the US and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) during the Cold War.
Competition within the Arab world
Moreover, it is seen that the pacts, alliances, organizations and collaborations established in our region against the Soviets were based on the goals, interests and strategies of global powers. In particular, almost all of the organizations, unions, councils, etc… established by Arab countries have not been fully successful due to the leadership rivalry among Arab powers. In addition, it is possible to say that Pan-Arabism, which was advocated by then President Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt during the Cold War period in the Arab world, rather than the spread of Pan-Arabism in the Middle East and its impact on the course of the Arab-Israeli war, has drawn a profile of an Arab world divided into various factions such as “which nationalism in the Arab world, whose line of nationalism and Nasserism nationalism” rather than ethnic nationalism among Arab countries. For this reason, it can be stated that any formation to be established in the Arab Middle East or the Gulf region has not been successful, even if it has shown political and military continuity.
At the end of World War II, to stop the USSR from expanding its influence both in Eastern Europe and South Asia, the “containment” policy put forward by then US Secretary of State Foster Dulles sought to link the defense of South Asia and the Middle East to the Western bloc. Therefore, Dulles’ main objective was to create a “security line” in South Asia and the Middle East. Therefore, in line with the US desire to prevent the Soviet Union from expanding its sphere of influence in the Middle East region, the Baghdad Pact was signed on February 24, 1955, between Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Iran and the UK as part of Mutual Security and Defense Cooperation.
On July 14, 1958, because of the military coup d’état organized by General Abdulkarim Qasim, the royal era ended in Iraq and a republic was declared. It can also be said that the Soviet Union was the actor behind the developments in Iraq after the establishment of the Baghdad Pact and General Qasim’s coup. Because Iraq announced its withdrawal from the Baghdad Pact in March 1959. The name of the pact was changed to CENTO (Central Treaty Organization) and its headquarters became Ankara. CENTO, an extension of the Baghdad Pact, prevented the Iraqi government from annexing Kuwait as its 19th province in 1961. CENTO was closed in 1979 with the withdrawal of Pakistan and Iran.
Security-defense cooperation
Considering the developments, serious security problems have been experienced in the Middle East after the September 11 attacks, with the invasion of Iraq by the US and international coalition forces in March 2003, the emergence of the al-Qaeda in Iraq terrorist organization, the Arab Spring and the spread of DAESH terrorism in the region. In addition, Iran’s growing power in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and its growing regional influence in the Middle East, which has made Israel, especially Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, uneasy, have emphasized the need to establish a regional security-defense cooperation. Israel is particularly concerned about the presence of Shiite militias near Damascus, even though Iran has been conducting airstrikes against the headquarters, weapons and ammunition depots of its proxy militias in Syria.
On the other hand, on June 20, 2022, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz emphasized in a statement that they had created a US-backed structure called the Middle East Air Defense Alliance, which prevented Iranian attacks. Moreover, it is known that Israel has offered defense cooperation to Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which are concerned about Iran’s power in the region. On June 23, King Abdullah II of Jordan, in an interview with CNBC, expressed his support for a Middle East NATO, emphasizing that “the vision and mission statement must be very clear, and its role must be well defined, otherwise it will confuse everyone.” Tel-Aviv, the first stop of US President Geo Biden’s Middle East tour on July 13, brought the establishment of a NATO model Arab or Middle East defense alliance to the agenda.
Iran threat
In fact, Arab NATO and Gulf NATO has been a subject of much debate in the academic community in the Arab world for quite some time. For example, in 2011, academic discussions on the future of the Gulf Cooperation Council emphasized three main factors. The first one is to transform the Gulf Cooperation Council into a European Union model by adding Jordan and Morocco, and to introduce a common currency among the Gulf countries (Oman and Kuwait opposed the common currency). The second factor is the establishment of a Joint Defense Force in the Gulf on the NATO model. The third is the enrichment of the human capital of the Gulf countries to start nuclear activities against Iran. Arab NATO or Gulf NATO in the Middle East is an idea that has always been discussed, especially in relation to the Iranian threat. In other words, it is not a new development that an anti-Iran defense and security alliance in the Middle East is on the agenda of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Jordan.
However, the most recent factor in the hot debates on Arab NATO or Middle East NATO is the intensification of Israel’s normalization with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan from September 2020-January 2021. In this context, the establishment of an Arab/Middle East NATO is very difficult, but it is important to consider whether regional and global balances will tolerate it.
Given the internal and external problems in the Arab world, a Middle East defense and security alliance in which the US wants to include Israel is unlikely to succeed because of the Palestinian issue. The real question is this: Although the US established the Baghdad Pact against the Soviets in 1955, it did not achieve the desired result. This was because Saudi Arabia and Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt strongly opposed the Baghdad Pact, claiming that it was a game of Western imperialism. In 1956, the Pact even led to the Suez crisis. From this perspective, the question arises: “Does the US want to establish Middle East NATO as a defense and security alliance or as a cooperation organization like the Baghdad Pact?” It is important to note the following point: Biden’s Washington administration’s efforts to establish a Middle East NATO have three main objectives. The first one is to prevent Russia from returning to the Middle East like the Soviet Union after the Syrian civil war and to start a new Cold War from the Arab world. The second one is Biden’s realization that the nuclear negotiations he started with Iran after he became President did not yield the same results as the Obama era (Middle East NATO can be seen to condemn Tehran to nuclear negotiations and force an agreement). The third and even the most important goal is to keep Tel Aviv in a defense and security alliance with Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Qatar, which are not normalizing with Israel, under the name of Middle East NATO.
Why is it not possible?
Because apart from Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, not all Arab countries see Iran as a threat. Qatar and Oman, for example, have very strong relations with Tehran. Egypt also does not see Iran as a threat. It should not be forgotten that Arab countries such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen are under Iranian influence. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s ongoing war and the power rivalry and crisis of confidence in the relations between Amman and Riyadh are negative factors for the establishment of an Arab NATO or a Baghdad Pact model. In other words, the fact that King Abdullah II of Jordan was the first among Arab leaders to express his support for a Middle East NATO shows that he is playing a leading role in the Arab world with the encouragement of the United States. In this context, it seems that the Middle East NATO plan will turn into a new leadership competition in the Arab world. To summarize, conceptually, there is a complex conceptual debate on the Arab/Middle East NATO. Since the concept of Arab NATO excludes Israel, it can be stated that the US prefers the name Middle East NATO. Therefore, it is difficult for such an Israel-oriented and anti-Iranian organization to find a response in the Arab world. Because, as mentioned above, not all Arab countries see Iran as a threat and do not want to normalize relations with Israel. In this respect, if such a defense and security cooperation is intended to be established in the Middle East or among Arab countries, its establishment within the scope of the fight against terrorism will ensure more support from Arab governments.
Published on 17.07.2022 in open opinion in star gazetesi newspaper.
