Sudan Expert
Until its division into North and South in 2011, Sudan was the largest country in Africa and the Middle East Arab world in terms of surface area. After the split, it ranked third in this regard, behind Algeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. North Sudan is now twice the size of many countries. Sudan is one of the countries rich in opportunities, with fertile agricultural land, underground resources, and solar energy potential. Additionally, Sudan’s long coastline on the Red Sea makes it critical for landlocked neighboring countries such as Chad and Ethiopia, as well as other Central African countries, to use Sudan’s ports for their trade activities.
Sudan is a country rich in underground resources due to its geographical structure. Sudan supplies 80-83% of gum Arabic, which is in demand in the Arab world and is generally used in sectors such as food, cosmetics and medicine. The United States of America (USA) has exempted gum Arabic from the embargo tariffs imposed on many Sudanese products. This is because the US is one of the largest buyers of Arabic chewing gum. In addition to gum Arabic, Sudan is Africa’s largest producer and exporter of sesame seeds. In particular, the city of Al Qadarif in eastern Sudan is one of the country’s most important sesame production centers. Another underground resource of Sudan is the gold mine. It is the third largest gold producer on the African continent. In addition to gold, oil is also among the important minerals of Sudan. Until 2011, oil accounted for 92-98% of Sudan’s national budget. Although the division of the country into North and South has reduced this ratio, oil is still a very important source of income for Sudan. Indeed, the export of South Sudanese oil to the world market through the ports in the Red Sea is possible through the territory of North Sudan. This has made Sudan a transit country just like Turkey.
Sudan’s freshwater resources, vast agricultural lands and fertile soils increase the interest of other countries in Sudan. Many countries such as China, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar produce in Sudan and export their products to the world market, using them in their domestic markets. Turkey is one of the countries interested in the agricultural lands in Sudan. In 2014, an agreement was foreseen between Turkey and Sudan to lease approximately one million hectares of agricultural land from eight different cities in Sudan to Turkey for 99 years. However, like many other agreements in this period, the military coup in Sudan prevented the implementation of this agreement. During this period, Turkish officials considered Turkey as Sudan’s gateway to Africa. Although Sudan’s historical and cultural values are one of the reasons why the country was subjected to colonialism, other states continue to intervene in Sudan’s internal affairs even in the post-colonial period.
Fundamentals of the Sudanese Conflict
As part of the disagreements in Sudan, the tensions between al-Burhan, the Chairman of the Sovereignty Council representing the military wing and also the army’s Chief of Staff, and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalu, nicknamed “Himidti”, the Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), are highlighted. The December 2022 preliminary framework reform agreement envisaged the integration of the SDF into the army, with the final agreement to be finalized in April 2023. At the heart of this dispute is the disagreement between the military and the civilian wing. It was supposed to be resolved by the army returning to its original role, ensuring the country’s national security and handing over power to a civilian government.
However, its leader, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalu, demanded a ten-year period to integrate the SDF into the army, which he accepted by force, while the leader of the Sudanese national army, al-Burhan, demanded the integration of the national army and the SDF within a two-year period. Finding the situation unacceptable, the SDF, led by Dagalu, went beyond the orders of the army and started its activities that led to the tension and conflict on April 13. Calling its forces to emergency duty and directing them to different cities, the NDF caused mobilization at critical points. There have been media reports that the HDC has taken control of Marwiyya, the army’s largest military base and cargo airport.
A Rising Force in Western Sudan: Formation of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is a paramilitary military group established in 2013 to fulfill missions it received from the Sudanese army. It was officially approved by the Sudanese parliament and established by a presidential decree. The NDF, which is supposed to be under the auspices of the official Sudanese army, has at times acted as if it were the second official army of the state, going against the orders of the army and causing problems within the army. With about a hundred thousand people, ten thousand vehicles and light weapons, the NDF could move quickly. Especially in the west of the country, the HDK has become a serious actor in the region with its economic power. It is believed that the gold resources in the west of Sudan are exported abroad through various companies and in different ways, providing a source of income for its expenditures.
In general, until 2019, the HNC fulfilled the tasks assigned to it with the approval of the parliament, and although it was not involved in the political processes of the country, after many regulations and amendments to the law, Dagalu acted as the Deputy Chairman or Vice President of the Sovereignty Council, which is Sudan’s head of state, and carried out a number of bureaucratic activities. It is possible to say that the HDC has been in official contacts with the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia and many other countries, and has transformed from a paramilitary military group into a political actor. HDK officials are said to have contacted the Wagner group during its visit to Russia in 2022, while it is said to have established a network of cooperation and bilateral relations with Haftar forces in Libya. In addition, since 2015, the HNC has been the largest military force in the Saudi Arabia and the UAE coalition in Yemen, with an armed force of between eleven thousand and fourteen thousand troops.
The NGO’s independence from the military and the level of influence it has achieved has caused discomfort within the Sudanese military. Discussions about suppressing its influence and making it legally part of the Sudanese army have continued to gain weight. Today, tensions continue with the confrontation between the Sudanese national army, led by al-Burhan, and the NDF, led by Dagalu, escalating into a hot conflict.
Current Dimensions of the Conflict
The current scale of the conflict, which has shocked the region, continues to grow and both sides are using all means at their disposal to take control of the capital Khartoum. The increasing number of casualties, both from the national army and the NGOs, is causing concern among the local population. Since April 13, the ongoing clashes have also created a humanitarian crisis, with people stranded for hours in workplaces and schools. Therefore, the extent of the transformation of the issue in Sudan from a political and military crisis to a humanitarian crisis is also illustrated. These issues seriously increase the need for a solution in Sudan. The debate over who has the upper hand in the conflict has not been clarified. Although it is thought that the army has the upper hand, the NLD also has a serious mobile effect against the army in street clashes with its vehicles and light weapons. In previous crises in Sudan, the internet was shut down and the news flow of the media was cut off, but the internet and media are still active in Sudan today. Both the NLD and the Sudanese national army continue to propagandize and report that they have the tensions under control. Accordingly, there have been reports in the media that the NLD has taken control of the central broadcasting building of television channels in Sudan.
The NDF currently holds some important strategic points. These include the television broadcasting building, the presidency in the capital Khartoum and the military base in Merviyye. The army has reportedly regained control of the military base in Merviyye and around 80-85% of Khartoum. In response to this situation, it is said that the NDF, which is gradually losing the regions and centers under its control, continues to send reinforcements to the capital Khartoum from the west of the country, especially from the city of Darfur, where it is still in a strong position.
As a result, international and regional organizations began to organize talks and meetings on the Sudanese conflict. The African Union Peace and Security Council decided to send a delegation headed by the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, to Sudan for negotiations. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which includes Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda, decided to send a delegation of the presidents of Kenya, Djibouti and South Sudan to Sudan for peace talks. The Arab League also organized a meeting. The United Nations is also scheduled to meet on April 17 to discuss the situation in Sudan. Turkey is also expected to call for peace between the parties in Sudan and assume a mediation role.
