The new US plan in Iraq is to deepen ethnic and sectarian divisions and trigger a controlled Pan-Arabism movement. Because it is possible to say that Shiite-Sunni sectarian divisions reinforce and increase Iran’s power in the Middle East. For this reason, it is foreseeable that Arab nationalists with a nationalist outlook, such as Sadr in Iraq, will gain strength on the political scene. It is obvious that after the US withdrew its troops from Iraq in December 2011, the US calculated to leave a government in Baghdad that both it and Iran could control. However, after Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s influence both in the region and in Iraq has weakened.
The United States of America (USA) invaded Afghanistan in October 2002 and Iraq in March 2003, claiming the presence of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) under the name of “fighting terrorism” with the “Greater Middle East” project it put forward in the context of the 9/11 incident. Thus, although there have been many changes in the political scene of the Middle East region in general and Iraq in particular, it is a fact that the political crises, economic difficulties and the vital problems of the people of the region have not changed. Therefore, the persistent political crises, disagreements and interest-based conflicts in Iraq are increasing day by day. There have been six parliamentary elections in the country since 2005 and almost every attempt to form a government after the elections has been complicated and controversial. Because when we look at the political equation that the US established in Iraq after the invasion, even though elections were held, they did not change the system established on the Baghdad axis. The main reason for this is that in the political equation of Iraq, the President is Kurdish, the Prime Minister is Shiite and the Speaker of the Parliament is Sunni Arab. In this context, whichever party wins the elections in the country has to form a consensus government. For example, even if Sunni Arabs or Turkmens win 60 percent of the votes in the parliamentary elections, they cannot take the post of Prime Minister. This system established by the US is a political model agreed upon by the Iraqi opposition forces at the London meeting before Saddam was overthrown.
This model has no adherence to the Iraqi constitution. In fact, the model of a Kurdish President, a Shiite Prime Minister and a Sunni Arab Speaker of Parliament negatively affects and obstructs the government formation process in Iraq.
Government formation crisis
In the early parliamentary elections held in Iraq on October 10, 2021, it is seen that the political balances in the country have changed and voters in the country did not vote for ethnic-sectarian movements. With the participation rate of 44 percent in the elections held in the country, Iran-backed Shiite parties and formations lost a significant amount of votes. Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, on the other hand, won 73 parliamentary seats by claiming Iraqi nationalism and advocated the formation of a majority government instead of a consensus government. In order to form a majority government, Sadr formed the Alliance for the Salvation of the Homeland with the Masoud Barzani-Sunni Arab Sovereignty coalition, which won 31 parliamentary seats, rather than with pro-Iranian Shiite parties, lists and formations. The Iranian-backed Shiite lists, on the other hand, united under the name of Coordination Framework and started negotiations with all political parties, especially the Sadrist Movement, to form a consensus government.
Looking at the developments in question, Sadr’s statement on June 9th, in which he invited 73 MPs to resign, and the subsequent resignation of Sadr’s MPs and two independent MPs, virtually ended the government formation process in the country. It was announced that the resignation of Sadr’s MPs was accepted by the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Khalbusi, and the parliament will go to the voting process. However, since the Iraqi parliament went on vacation for two months, the vote has not yet taken place. The first reaction to the resignation of the Sadrist Movement MPs came from Masoud Barzani (KDP), with whom the Sadrist Movement formed an alliance. In a statement on his social media account, Barzani said, “We respect the decision of Mr. Muqtada Sadr, and we will follow the further developments. Sunni Arabs, on the other hand, have not made any statement against Sadr’s decision. Sunnis are most likely waiting for Sadr’s decision to become clearer and to see if he is decisive. In addition, the pro-Iranian Coordination Framework coalition announced that they respect Sadr’s decision to resign and will dialog with the political parties.
Competition and fragmentation
One of the most important differences of the October 10 Iraqi elections from the previous elections held in the country is that the Shiite-Shiite-Kurdish-Kurdish politics have diverged due to power rivalries. For the first time since 2003, Sunni Arabs were both well organized in the last elections held in Iraq and united under a single roof, the Sovereignty coalition, in the government formation process. Until the elections held in Iraq on May 12, 2018, the Shiites managed to act together in the government formation process with the influence of Iran. Likewise, the Kurds, despite their divergence in the political structure in the north, acted together in order not to lose their strategic interests in Baghdad. However, because of the early parliamentary elections on October 10, 2021, it gives the impression that the Shiites are divided into two blocs in the prime ministerial candidates and the government formation system. On the Kurdish front, there has been a crisis between Barzani’s KDP and Talabani’s PUK over the presidential post. In this context, it can be said that the political system established by the US in Baghdad after 2003 is on the verge of collapse and that the majority government is now seen as the only solution rather than a consensus government.
When the recent developments in Iraq are considered from this perspective, it is possible to say that crises of this nature will also lead to economic and security-based problems in the country, even if they are seen as a purely political government formation crisis. If the government formation crisis, which has been going on for eight months, is not resolved, street demonstrations between Sadrist supporters and pro-Iranian Shiites can be expected. In this respect, considering the developments in Iraq, it can be stated that after Sadr’s withdrawal from the government formation process, no matter what coalition government is formed in the country, it will not be able to solve the political crisis. After the October 10 elections, General Ismail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Army of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, visited Iraq at least three times and failed to solve the Shiite-Shiite problem. On June 16, Muqtada Sadr met with the resigned MPs in Hannan in Najaf and said that there would be no going back from the resignation. Ali al-Sistani, the Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who remained silent during the government formation process in Iraq, emphasized that they were monitoring the developments in the country and had issued warnings many times.
Power struggle
When the power struggles among the Shiites are evaluated, it is seen that the political process in post-US Iraq is largely designed by parties, organizations and Shiite politicians directed by Iran. Therefore, even though the political structure of Iraq is unlikely to change, the internal conflicts among the Shiites may weaken Iran’s sphere of influence in Iraq. It should be noted that Iran does not support the establishment of a Shiite state in Iraq as an alternative to itself, but it wants the Baghdad administration to be under the influence of Shiites. Perhaps one of the issues on which it agrees with the US is that it does not support the establishment of a Shiite state. Especially after the US withdrew its troops from Iraq in December 2011, it is obvious that the US had calculated to leave a government in Baghdad that both it and Iran could control. However, after Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s influence in the region and in Iraq has visibly weakened.
Miscalculation from Baghdad…
In conclusion, Iraq has entered a new political phase with the processes of change in the Middle East region and the balances in the relations between Arab countries. It is also important not to ignore the regional power struggle over Iraq. It can be said that the US focus on the Asia-Pacific and the Russia-Ukraine war with Biden has led to political crises in Iraq and regional competition to fill the vacuum. Moreover, from the picture, it is possible to say that the situation has brought Iraq to a position where it can no longer be shared among the countries of the region. In fact, the rivalry between Iran and the Gulf countries in Iraq may drag this country into political and security chaos. In this context, it can be stated that the new US plan for the continuation of the political process in Iraq is to trigger a controlled Pan-Arabism movement by deepening ethnic and sectarian divisions. Because it is possible to say that Shiite-Sunni sectarian divisions reinforce and increase Iran’s power in the Middle East. For this reason, it is foreseeable that Arab nationalists with a nationalist outlook, such as Sadr, will become stronger on the political scene in Iraq.
To summarize, it can be emphasized that the political crisis in Iraq has entered a very serious dead end after Sadr’s decision to withdraw from the political arena or to join the opposition. Since the political map in Iraq is based on ethnic and sectarian foundations, it is difficult to achieve political unity in the country. Iraq needs a serious social, social and political reconciliation. The formation of a pluralist government composed of Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens has become a prerequisite for stability in the country.
This article was published in Star Newspaper Open Opinion on June 19, 2022.
