When the Taliban took the control of Kabul, the capital Afghanistan, on August 15 this resulted in new balances and power competition on the global agenda. Considering its jeopolitical imporatnce and internal dynamics the country pauses both strategic importance and threat for the Asian counties. There is Pakhistan on the south and the east, Iran on the west; Ozbekhistan, Tacikhistan, Turkmenistan on the north, and China in the northeast. Therefore, especially Taliban’s return to the stage of political history after 20 years increases the number of questions. It is quite an object of curiosty how China, Pakhistan, India, Russia and Western countries are going to interact with Taliban. Whose zone of power and influence will expand in Afghanistan after Taliban’s control in. The Middle and Sothern Asia? The bilateral relations between China, Russia, India and Pakistan and the power balance in Afghanistan seem to be quite complicated.
How the Afghanistan’s Internal Dynamics and the New Balances Will Take Shape?
Taliban’s rapid move across in the area of Afghanistan does not mean that the movement is successful and the victory is gained. Because, Taliban has proceed until Kabul after the US and NATO’s withdrawal since may without any strong resistance either from Afghanistan security forces or from its army. This situation will lead to serious problmes for Taliban who maintains the control in Afghanistan. Because a chil who was born in 2001 is 20 today and would not comply the rigid, radical and harsh Shariat system of the Taliban easily. The new generation in Afghanistan is more fearless. The fact that they lost their hope of their country provides 3 options to the young generation. Those are, accepting all the rules of Taliban, organizing against Taliban by resisting and establihing a modern life and lastly, leaving the country by migration. There are no other options for the yong Afghans other than the three. Therefore it can be said that in a short or average term there might be a rebellion agains Taliban.
The US’s decision to give space to the Taliban in Afghanistan may be a strategic move against China, Russia and the interests of regional countries in South Asia. At the same time, it is a plan to confront the Taliban with the new dynamics in the country and confront them with serious political, economic, social and security problems. This is because the political views, social culture and socio-economic problems of the new generation in Afghanistan are far different from the Taliban’s founding mentality and strategic goals. For example, 32-year-old Ahmad Shah Massoud’s, son of former Defense Minister Shah Massoud, call for resistance against the Taliban in the Panshshir valley, will not be easily accepted by Afghanistan’s next generation of young people in a Sharia-oriented Kabul government completely controlled by the Taliban. And even the new generation of the Northern Alliance will rebel against the Taliban.
Afghanistan has more economic and sociological problems than political system problems. After Taliban’s control over Kabul rather than economic and socio-economic pledges, which governmnetal system will be on power between Sariah and democratic transition may encounter with a civil war in short term due to the economical problems. Therefore, it is possible to say that the US was also tryingt to show Taliban that the new generation and the Afgjanistan it has built in 20 years is not going to be same as 1990’s. Especially economically Afghanistan is in a collapse and not able to carry out a project without having external support financially. In 2008, 80 percent of the projects worthy of 11 milliyon dolars were implemented with foreign support.
The Gross National Product in Afghanistan is 500 dollars per capita. According to 2020 data, the poverty rate in the country is 72 percent, the unemployment rate is 38 percent, 30 percent of Afghan citizens are on the starvation line and have no food security. Between 2016 and 2020, the US and its allies have provided $15.2 billion in financial support to the Afghanistan budget, while the World Bank has provided $5.3 billion. While all these problems continue severly, it is inevitable that the Taliban’s struggle with the political system will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and a civil war in the country in the future periods. In other words, the Taliban will face very serious problems due to internal dynamics, and if it continues to insist on establishing a Sharia or Islamic Emirate government without solving the economic problems in the country, external aid to Afghanistan will be cut off and it will face international economic sanctions. It is important to note that the US, the West and the international community aim to impose economic sanctions against the Taliban and to control it politically.
Regional Rivalry, Problems and Taliban
With the Taliban era, the regional rivalry in Afghainstan seems to have increased. The question of who is going to fill the power vacuum that the US left is important. Especially China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Iran do not want radical religiously motivated groups in Afghanistan and terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Imam Bukhari Brigade and ISIS/ISIL to flourish again with the support of the Taliban. In particular, China’s 76-kilometer border with Afghanistan and the intersection of the Afghan border with the Uyghur Turkic region in the northwest of the country pose threat and concern. China’s security support to Kyrgyzstan and its increasing economic and military influence in Tajikistan are due to its concerns about Islamic radical organizations. Russia is increasing its influence in the Central Asian region through its military base in Tajikistan and is very concerned about radical groups.
It is noteworthy that with the Taliban’s control of Kabul, the Taliban has been giving smooth messages to neighboring countries and the world public opinion. The Taliban’s strategy in the cobnext of energy is to try to implement the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline. With the Taliban in control of Afghanistan and China saying that it is ready to establish friendly relations, a controlled Taliban will prevent the threat of radical elements against Beijing. China knows very well that for the Taliban, Beijing is the only channel for the economic and commercial investment. That is why in December 2019, a Taliban delegation led by Abdul Ghani Birader visited China by assuring Beijing that they would protect its regional interests. The presence of the ISIS terrorist organization in the Khorasan region in the Eastern Afghanistan is a major threat to Beijing. Therefore, China is preparing to establish a military base in Tajikistan. Economically, an Economic and Trade Commission was established between Beijing and Kabul in 2015. A commercial railway was opened between Afghanistan and China, passing through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 2019.
The increase in the security and civil war proeblems in Afghanistan after the US poses a major threat perception for both China and Russia. Especially gun trade, drugs and the revival of terrorist groups are important matters. It is important to indicate that, although Russia and China share the same concerns of the secuirty and the terrorirst groups in Afghanistan, Moscow percevies itself as the protector of the central Asian republics. Therefore, China and Russia are in competition to fill the vacuum in Afghanistan. However, due to its economic power, it is more likely that China will become stronger in Afghanistan and exert influence over the Taliban.
After the US’s withdrawal Pakistan may take a role in preventing the conflict in Afghanistan due to its relations with Taliban. This situation may secure Beijing’s interests in Afghanistan due to Pakistan’s relations with China and Taliban and may be an important partner for China. Because of this, it can be said that China might benefit from the developments in Afghanistan from the power rivalry between Pakistan and India and their problems. Meaning that, China may use the competition for Afghanistan between India and China for the benefit of itself.
The U.S. will seek to maintain its competition in Afghanistan with China through India after the withdrawal of its soldiers. Because it shouldn’t be forgotten that India has more investments than China in Afghanistan. In the last years, India had a great effect on people close to the Afghan intelligence and Kabul government. In addition to that, India is the only country without deep ties with the Taliban due to the problems in its relations with Pakistan. Therefore, India may provide guns and financial support to the groups that resists Taliban in the coming periods. This situation may both harm Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan and increase India’s penetration in the country.
The issues come to the fore front evaluating India-China relations in Afghanistan are as follows: a) In Afghanistan, Beijing and Iran are in agreement on many issues. In particular, China and Iran share the same view on the increasing influence of Western countries in Afghanistan. b) It is worth underlining that Iran supports China’s investments in Afghanistan and the region in the context of the Belt and Road Project and wants to establish a comprehensive strategic partnership. c) It is an important factor that India complies with the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the US and the European Union. Moreover, India’s recent development and strengthening of relations with countries hostile to Tehran, such as Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, suggests that Iran sees China close to it in Afghanistan. It is possible to say that China does not want Turkey, which it sees as a NATO member and European ally in Afghanistan, to protect Kabul Airport. In other words, one of the reasons for China’s economic and investment support to the Taliban might be its attitude of opposing Turkey’s protection of the security of Kabul Airport.
Scenarios of Afghanistan:
How do the Taliban and the powers are going to act?
- As a tactical strategy to gain the support of the people of Afghanistan and the international community, the Taliban may partially give up on establishing a Sharia or Islamic Emirate government in the short to medium term. A transitional government could be formed in Afghanistan, as the West, Central Asian countries, the US and global powers hope by giving the Taliban the lion’s share. This government may be expected to give 60 to 70 percent to the Taliban. It may also be similar to the government that Khomeini established in Iran in 1979.
- By turning against the world and declaring an Emirate, the Taliban would both divide Afghanistan and drive it into a civil war. This scenario would be a political suicide for the Taliban in terms of the opportunity it has gained after 20 years. Such a situation would lead to the threat of al-Qaeda and similar terrorist organizations in the country and the region. This is a cause of great concern and threat for China, Russia, Iran and the Central Asian Republics.
- A total U.S. exit from Afghanistan would mean leaving South Asia to China and Russia. For these reasons, it is possible to maintain chaos and instability by stirring up the country through the Taliban. It can be said that a power struggle will begin between various structures within the Taliban. Because the dynamics within the Taliban, which was founded in 1994, have diversified and there is a multi-headed Taliban profile.
- The worst and the dangerous scenario however, is that with the increase in the power of Taliban in Afghanistan may result in the return of terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda in Syria to Central Asia. Therefore, in order to prevent this, regional countries should act according to the sense of. collective security. Taliban-ruled Afghanistan can be seen as a potential threat to the internal, border and regional security of Shanghai Cooperation Organization members.
